Hurricane Hato (which raised Hong Kong’s most severe Typhoon 10 warning) has finally come to an end, but my mood remains dampened. Human lives are too fragile; 12 lives were lost just like that.
On 23 August 2017, I was hiding at home as I listened to the howling wind outside the window, and I was worried that my glass windows would be shattered too.
A car accident happened on 24 August 2017—a van driver did not pull the handbrake as he was getting out of the vehicle, and as a result he was sandwiched between two vans and killed.
That reminds me of the incident where I too forgot to apply handbrake when I was getting out of the car. What happened was my right leg that left the car was caught between the car door and the wall. My leg nearly broke.
I was sent straight to the ICU to be operated on, and I have not driven a car since then due to the heavy emotional trauma.
Investors’ confidence has yet to recover
The Hang Seng Index opened 240 points higher on 24 August. That was already the highest point of the day. Downward corrections could be seen after which, showing that investors’ confidence has yet to be fully restored.
Only performance shares went through speculation that day. That includes shares that have already announced their results, as well as those that are about to announce their results.
Jiayuan International Group Ltd (2768.HK), which was listed in March 2016, announced its results too. They even held a huge banquet for that, inviting 21 tables of analysts and fund managers.
Jiayuan was listed at HK$2.48 per share, but it closed at HK$4.7 on 24 Aug, showing a price increase of about 90%. The company announced pretty good results on 24 Aug too.
Jiayuan’s profit grew by 35.3%. Interestingly, another mainland China real estate stock Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238.HK) also reported a 35.3% growth in profit.
Actually, mainland real estate developers are under quite some pressure due to purchase restriction orders and price controls imposed by the local governments.
Therefore, their past results are not really important.
What’s more important, is their sales volumes in the first half of the year, and the sales outlook for the second half. The sales volume is the guarantee to their future results.
Eight rises in a row will bring pressure
According to reports, some casinos in Macau will suffer great losses as a result of being flooded, thanks to Hurricane Hato. I, on the other hand, think that insurance companies are the ones that really have much to lose.
The Hang Seng Index has been rising for seven months in a row. Volatility is high for August, and till now, we still do not know whether this month would see a rise or a fall.
As the rising trend is too strong in July, I think that it is healthy to have some correction. I would not want to see eight consecutive rises, as that would only put more pressure on the month of September.
A slow bull run is always more desirable than a crazy rally.
In the former scenario, one could at least take pleasure in seeing the market rise for some more days, instead of feeling unsettled in a market rollercoaster ride.
This article was translated from Chinese to English by Chen Xushuang. Click here to read the original article.