Geopolitical risk has returned to take center stage.
My latest book “Chaos” has finally been published. Amongst the 50 odd books I have written, three books were dedicated to a detailed analysis of the stock market during different era.
The Shanghai Securities Exchange Composite (SSEC) index peaked out in January last year. However, at its highest last year, the SSEC was still significantly behind its 2007’s all-time high. Following January 2018, the SSEC trended downwards for the rest of the year, only bottoming out in the beginning of 2019.
On 9 March 2019, I returned to Singapore to speak at the Shares Investment Conference (SIC) 2019 held at the HDB Hub in Toa Payoh. As I always put up in hotels each time I return, it has been a while since I last explored our housing districts. This time round, I took the opportunity to walk around the neighbourhood of Toa Payoh after the SIC event.
US-China trade war has hit a stalemate and there are still major differences to be hammered out. US President Trump reiterated that he would either sign a “great” China trade deal or he would choose to walk away like how he did in the second nuclear summit with North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un.
Some years back, China and Philippines were embroiled in a territorial dispute over the island reefs in the South China Sea. Singapore took a position in support of the Philippines, causing bilateral relations with China to deteriorate.
Over the Chinese New Year Holiday, US President Trump delivered his State of the Union (SOTU) address to Congress. His speech, in essence, was a campaign for his re-election bid in 2020. To rally US voters, Trump chose the slogan “Choosing Greatness” and criticised China for taking advantage of the US on trade matters in the past. However, Trump’s rhetoric was rather controlled and he blamed his predecessor Obama for allowing the US-China trade deficit to widen under his nose.
In December last year, the global stock market saw a rout as investors were spooked by a hawkish stance on interest rates by the Federal Reserve, coupled with uncertainty over US-China trade war. Despite the grim outlook, I shared my reasons for turning bullish in 2019 in the article “I Am Bullish For These Reasons”, at the beginning of the year.
Last September, US President Trump blew his own trumpet by declaring victory in the trade war against China. Citing how the US stock market was outperforming the Chinese stock market, Trump ratcheted up the ante by threatening to impose 25 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports at the start of 2019.
Donald Trump blew his own trumpet last September by declaring victory in the Sino-US trade war! He cited the US bull market, as opposed to the Chinese bear market, as the reason for the victory. As soon as the ...